Mankind is facing serious problems of global reach, arising from the contradictions of world development. A number of factors have a destabilizing effect on international security, including rivalry between independent states and centers of power, backwardness problems, the contrasts of Eastern European reality with the rest of Europe, and unpredictable processes in individual countries and regions. This allows new crisis situations and clashes to arise on historical and geopolitical grounds.

New ambitions for domination and influence emerge in the form of nationalism and chauvinism, fundamentalist ideologies and religious fanaticism. In the complex interdependent system of relations, the role of the internal problems of the individual country has grown, which is playing an increasing role both for its own security and for international security in general.

The main security problems in the 21st century will be regional instability and unsustainable development, the emergence and escalation of conflicts of ethnic and religious origin and related forms of terrorism, and the globalization of organized crime.

This leads to crises of varying intensity, which can have significant negative consequences for the overall infrastructure of an individual country or region and even for world peace and stability.

In support of this is the statement of one of the former US Secretary of Defense McNamara - "No more military strategy, only crisis management", which means that the decision to manage the crisis is one of the three top political decisions. The first is to win elections, the second is to run to achieve goals, and the third is to run in a crisis.

 

RISK FACTORS AND THREATS FOR CRISIS SITUATIONS AND CRISIS

The factors that influence the emergence and development of crises in Southeast Europe are quite diverse. They can manifest themselves on different bases - political, military, economic, territorial, natural, ethnic, religious and others.

Potential dangers objectively exist in both the public and natural spheres. The risk of their manifestation can be found in the interaction between these two systems. Therefore, the role of the human factor is important, which must balance, organize and manage the process of this interaction. In addition to the escalation of the crisis, risk factors and threats are essential for its management. In order to be scientifically clarified, it is necessary to define the concept of risk. It does not have an unambiguous definition, but it can be said that in a broader sense the risk includes the availability of alternative conclusions. In this sense, the risk is when more than one result can be achieved. In a narrower sense, the risk is usually associated with the likelihood of unwanted and adverse changes. As part of the overall problem, risk can be seen as uncertainty at some future point or period.

The other category directly related to risk is the threat or threat of threat. It can be any violation of the relative stability of any of the elements of security, regardless of the reasons that led to this instability. And since these reasons could be innumerable, and depending on the approach taken, an infinite number of variants of hazard schemes can be made. However, the attempt to define these threats without taking into account the real root connection between most of them runs the risk of escalating the problem. Given this consideration and based on the above definition, we believe that the most typical types of threats to our national security at this stage may be from political, economic, military, environmental, demographic, ethnic, informational and cultural-spiritual nature.

Threats can be:

• unlikely - aggression against Bulgaria, which would violate its territorial integrity and sovereignty;

• moderate - threat of force or the use of force to resolve controversial or unresolved issues;

• highly probable - creeping aggression, manifesting vulnerability of the country to threats of low intensity, which in many cases may not be of an immediate military nature.

Falling into unilateral economic, political, environmental and other dependence on a certain country, intensifying military conflicts and paralysis of state power, all factors that in the long run can create a certain situation.

The NATO Strategic Concept, adopted by the Heads of State and Government at their meeting in Washington (1999), embodies new views on the nature of security risks and threats. It is pointed out that, unlike in the past, the current risks that can give rise to crisis situations are numerous and multifaceted, and therefore difficult to predict and assess. At the same time, it is acknowledged that the potential for crises resulting from serious economic, social and political difficulties, including ethnic unrest and territorial disputes, has increased due to the reduced risk of aggression against Allied territories. It is believed that tensions in some areas could lead to crises and armed conflicts that could spread to NATO countries and directly affect its security. There are also wider risks, including the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, disruption of the supply of vital raw materials, terrorist acts, sabotage and more. NATO Allies note that against the background of a significantly reduced risk of major conflict in Europe, there are much greater risks of various and probably small-scale crises and conflicts of an interstate or internal nature, requiring a rapid response, so conditionally consider their evolution as two interrelated states - military danger and military threat.

The transition from one stage to another is taking place under the influence of one or more factors. The crisis is seen as one of the possible and gradually evolving stages of a conflict.

The changes in the strategic situation in Europe have led to changes in the nature and importance of destabilizing risk factors and security threats, including the Republic of Bulgaria. They can be grouped by different characteristics - by place (internal and external), by nature (military and non-military), by time (permanent and temporary), by areas of impact (political, socio-economic, informational, environmental, demographic, humanitarian, ethno-minority, religious), according to the degree of their manifestation and impact (real or potential), direct or indirect, etc. This distinction is conditional, moreover, some of them are manifested in combination, such as external and non-military, permanent and indirect, and so on. In some cases, their combined and simultaneous action can further complicate and destabilize the situation not only nationally but also internationally. Characteristic of the modern military-political situation is the emergence of mainly internal and not interstate conflicts.

The main risk factors that have one or another impact on the stability and security in the region, including the security of the Republic of Bulgaria at present are:

- geostrategic position of the country;

- the existing conflict and potential crisis areas in South East Europe, some of which are close to the country's borders;

- imbalances in armaments and the state of the armed forces;

- the inequality of the countries in the region in terms of guarantees for their national security;

- socio-economic problems;

- unfavorable demographic characteristics;

- manifestations threatening the security, rights and freedoms of citizens;

- threats to information security;

- the impact of new and specific security risks and challenges;

- natural disasters, large-scale industrial and environmental accidents and catastrophes, etc.

The sites against which some of the risks and threats to national security can be directed are in practically all areas, but the main ones are:

- the political and state system of the country;

- economic and financial stability;

- the defense system and security structures;

- the unity of the nation, its spiritual and cultural values;

- interethnic relations and religious tolerance;

- elements of foreign policy;

- our priority relations with a specific country, organization or union;

- the information system of the country;

- strategic infrastructure sites, transport and communication nodes, energy routes, etc., incl. military sites;

- ecologically dangerous sites, etc.

When considering the factors that to one degree or another affect the various aspects of the security of the Republic of Bulgaria, the specific regional environment is characterized, characterized by the presence of conflict and unstable areas, which negatively affects various aspects of national interests and security. One of the consequences of the difficult stabilization of the region is that the successful integration of Bulgaria into European and Euro-Atlantic structures depends to some extent on the stabilization of the situation in Southeast Europe and in some of the neighboring countries. An eloquent example of this was the events surrounding the break-up of the SFR Yugoslavia in the last ten years. As a result of a series of bloody conflicts on ethnic grounds, conditions have arisen for political and economic destabilization of the entire region. Bulgaria's economy has suffered serious direct and indirect losses.

In the event of such crises, political, geographical and humanitarian problems in neighboring countries could trigger possible massive waves of refugees. This in itself could lead to a dramatic deterioration of economic conditions in the countries concerned and create an extremely dangerous situation, leading to the internationalization of the conflict by involving other countries.

Apart from ethnic conflicts, local crises of this type could be caused by acute economic, social or domestic political difficulties of various kinds.

The main destabilizing factors for regional security at present are the conflict in Macedonia and other outbreaks of tension in the former Yugoslavia. The complexity of the underlying problems shows that a lasting solution cannot be expected soon. In certain circumstances, these and some other sources of tension may escalate and lead to a threat to the national security of the Republic of Bulgaria and to the detriment of its vital interests. Although it does not directly affect Bulgaria's security, the situation in Macedonia also has a regional dimension for several reasons: the escalation of the conflict could lead to mass refugee flows, complicate relations between countries in the region and the involvement of neighboring countries. of regional cooperation, including the implementation of infrastructure, etc. projects of pan-European and transcontinental significance, the possible escalation of the situation in Macedonia will also affect Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and others.

Despite rapid technological changes, the Balkans retain their important geostrategic position. The importance of the region as a transport, infrastructure and energy crossroads is growing with the future enlargement of the EU and NATO, as well as with the connection of the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia with European markets.

South-Eastern Europe is characterized by the deepening of the imbalances in the field of armaments as a result of the military-political changes and the differences in the military-economic potentials of the individual countries. This factor remains the material basis for possible military insecurity, as in the event of a sharp destabilization of the situation in one of the neighboring countries it can be used to provoke tensions in interstate relations or to resolve certain issues by force and become an immediate threat. for national security. In the neighboring countries, long-term programs are being implemented for the modernization of their armed forces and their organizational improvement, supplies and production of modern weapons and military equipment are being carried out.

An essential feature of South-Eastern Europe is that the region remains strategically inhomogeneous due to the unequal degree of integration of individual countries in European and Euro-Atlantic structures and the existence of areas with varying degrees of security. The interests of different geopolitical centers, which are in some respects contradictory, are currently intertwined here. Combined with the dynamics and complexity of the ongoing processes, this could, under certain conditions, create an unfavorable regional environment for the security and interests of individual countries, including the Republic of Bulgaria.

This inhomogeneity is exacerbated by the strong ethnic and religious intolerance in some parts of the region, which is most often manifested in the pursuit of independence, revision of established boundaries, redistribution of territories, creation of new states and others. combined with acute social and economic problems, systemic human rights violations and other specific circumstances, they are at the root of existing conflicts and instability, and in some parts of the region - Western Macedonia, Vojvodina and Sandzak, etc., are sources of tension and can, in certain circumstances, escalate into serious crises. Despite the relatively rich international tools in the humanitarian field, incl. and to protect the rights of persons belonging to different minorities, these problems continue to motivate the behavior of large communities. Ethno-religious contradictions also affect relations between states, having the potential to complicate them.

The economic factor is crucial for ensuring national security. The deepening of economic and social disparities on the continent and in the region create preconditions for the emergence of insecurity and new threats to the stability of the state. The contradictory transition to democracy and market economy in the individual countries also contributes to this, which is at the root of the crisis phenomena and instability. Socio-economic problems directly affect the country's military potential, narrow the opportunities to defend national interests, ensure the prosperity of citizens and the state as a whole, increase external financial, technological, raw materials and other dependence. Important for ensuring the national security and stable development of our country will be its ability to develop its own modern infrastructure that will fit into the pan-European and transcontinental transport, communication and energy routes.

The unfavorable demographic characteristics and the limitation of the country's human resources create dangers for the survival and protection of the nation, especially in the long run. The demographic crisis is further exacerbated by high emigration. A threat to national security are also manifestations that threaten the constitutional order, the democratization of society, security, rights and freedoms of citizens. Internal stability in the country will be deepened along with the strengthening of the ability of the executive and the judiciary to protect citizens, civil society and the state against lawlessness, on which the success of the transition to a market economy and democracy depends.

Another real danger to national security is computer crime. The rapid development of modern technologies has created preconditions for the emergence of threats of penetration, manipulation and destruction of information systems in order to paralyze certain areas or the entire activity of the country. Cybercrime is capable of causing serious damage not only to government but also to private computer networks, to making changes to the information contained therein, and more. This risk also exists for information networks used by the armed forces. The possible leakage of strategic information related to national security, economic and financial interests of the country will also damage its security. In the new geostrategic situation in Europe and in the world and in the conditions of deep transformations in the domestic political situation in the individual countries, changes have taken place in the nature of security threats. The range of new and specific security risks and challenges has expanded, some of which are difficult to predict and assess, such as the uncontrolled proliferation of weapons and technology, including components of weapons of mass destruction; organized crime and related drug trafficking and terrorism; refugee problems and illegal emigration; the manifestations of Islamic fundamentalism; threats to information systems for countries; transnational environmental issues; natural disasters and industrial accidents and catastrophes; manifestations of xenophobia, etc.

Some of these risks and threats threaten the security of individual countries and the development of society itself and its values. They also have an international dimension and are gaining a global character, which is why broader international cooperation is needed to neutralize them. Their enduring nature shows that their impact on national and international security will continue for a long period of time. The proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction is a threat to international security, including for our country for a number of reasons, the most important of which are: the growing number of countries that develop their own programs and produce materials, technologies and dual-use facilities; the established attempts for supply or for development and trade in nuclear technologies and materials by groups or persons, incl. and criminals who use or create new channels for drug and arms trafficking; the aspiration of individual countries - Iraq, India, Pakistan, etc., to acquire nuclear weapons, etc. In addition, many of them, such as biological (toxic) weapons, are relatively easy to produce and transport and are more difficult to detect. In addition to physical destruction, they can be used to cause epidemics and disrupt large groups of people. There are also risks of using weapons of mass destruction against international contingents carrying out peacekeeping, rescue or other missions in different parts of the world. This requires, when planning one or another similar mission, to take into account in advance the risk factors in the specific regional environment in order to prepare the troops and other personnel for action in such conditions.

Organized crime and corruption, the outflow of national capital, etc., which have a negative impact on national security, are also a risk factor for security. They can erode state structures, make it difficult to conduct state policy, including in the field of defense and internal security, and create problems for the development of international relations. Criminal organizations also use the proceeds to destabilize the management of the economy, to infiltrate legitimate business, to create "gray areas" in the economy, and more. The development of the situation in some countries of Southeast Europe has shown the importance of organized crime for destabilizing the economic and financial system and the country as a whole. In these circumstances, drug trafficking and the illicit arms trade are on the rise. International criminal activity is also a destabilizing factor for national security. Criminal groups, especially those specializing in organized violence, various types of smuggling, including drugs and weapons, are a real threat to countries in transition and to the continent's economic development. The fight against international crime, including terrorism, is becoming an important dimension of international cooperation. It is also important for European and regional integration processes.

In the new international environment, terrorism is becoming more pervasive and cross-border. This allows for the rapid improvement of ways and means of achieving criminal goals, involving more people, overcoming geographical barriers and creating alliances between groups in one or more countries.

On the other hand, access to weapons and methods with increasing legality, as well as those aimed at affecting information systems, allow terrorists to be unrelated to the actions of public groups. This could lead to the gradual formation of small but effective terrorist groups that easily cross geographical boundaries, making it difficult to neutralize them.

The tendency to partially shift the goals of political terrorism should be noted. The social and economic problems brought to the fore by globalization are changing the motives for committing terrorist acts.

This requires increasing the level of coordination and cooperation between individual countries on the basis of building new common mechanisms and structures, synchronization of individual legislation and legal assistance in this direction, ie. the creation of a rapid and effective system of preventive measures.

The drug trade is an important source of funding for criminals, including terrorist groups and organizations, for the spread of corruption and others. There are numerous examples of crossed drug trafficking channels through the territory of Bulgaria. The use of drugs in the country, including in the armed forces, is growing. The fight against drug trafficking is complicated by the use of modern means of communication and transport, the development of modern technologies, the expansion of the geography of drug production and others. Illegal production of synthetic drugs in urban areas is expected to increase.

The penetration of refugee flows and illegal emigration is a destabilizing factor for national security given the peculiarities of the regional situation, the existence of conflict zones of unresolved issues in interstate relations, socio-economic problems, political instability and internal conflicts, ineffective border control and others. factors.

Another challenge for security in the region, including national security, is the manifestations of radical Islam, including Islamic fundamentalism and attempts to expand the penetration of extreme Islamist ideas. Prerequisites for this are the historical circumstances, the compact Muslim communities in the region, the unresolved problems and the existence of conflict zones, the politicization of Islam, the sharpening of separatist aspirations on ethno-religious grounds, the important location of the Balkans as a bridgehead to Central Europe. economic and financial opportunities of various Islamist organizations, etc. Specifically for Bulgaria, this factor is potentially destabilizing due to the increased activity of emissaries for various fundamentalist organizations in the region, attempts to form radical groups that can be used are terrorist and other criminal activities, to inspire religious and ethnic intolerance and etc. Although the possibilities of radical Islam in general remain limited, this does not reduce the danger of its manifestation as a destabilizing factor in individual countries and in the region as a whole.

he importance of resource security is manifested at the national, regional and global levels, against the background of the persistent trend of increasing energy needs and others. resources. Water resource problems, environmental pollution, restricting access to strategic raw materials, etc. can lead to tensions and crises nationally and internationally. There is a desire in some neighboring countries to disavow Bulgaria from the new transport and energy routes by offering alternative projects without our participation.

Modern economic and technological development, including the use of resources, environmental pollution, urbanization, imbalances in the ecosystem of individual countries and others. identified environmental issues as a specific risk to national and international security. These problems also have a serious impact on economic activity and the state of the national ecosystem and can lead to destabilization of large areas. Some activities in the field of defense are also a source of environmental danger. The national interests are realized with an optimal balance between the protection of the environment and the waters and the utilization of the natural resources for sustainable development of Bulgaria. Transboundary environmental problems have the potential to exacerbate relations with neighboring countries.

The risk factor is the possible use of modern technologies to create small and light tools that perform complex functions that have applications in the creation of weapons of mass destruction. Rapidly evolving technologies will continue to change the nature and capabilities of some of the security threats in the future. Ensuring international security is linked to the level of information risks and threats associated with the transition to the information society.

The development of computer technology, the emergence of industrial globalization take in a new direction the traditional understanding of the nature of information and its impact on security.

Information in the electronic media, which has qualitatively new advantages over other means of communication, is used as a strategic advantage to provoke conflicts and contradictions that pose security threats. They can have a negative psychological impact on the population, and globally, by using various ways to misinform and deliberately distort information, including for propaganda purposes.

The issue of information security requires increasing the effectiveness of protection mechanisms of a technological nature and improving the legal regulation in this direction.

During the Kosovo war, the US military managed to generate fictitious images of planes in Serbian air defense computers. This is considered a prologue to the war of the future. Through their computer networks, the Americans have repeatedly paralyzed electricity and communications in Serbia. The US Central Intelligence Agency has recently set up a special headquarters for information warfare, which is tasked with making all preparations for war in cyberspace.

Political, economic, scientific-technical, informational and other processes, as well as the intensifying competition for access to vital resources and infrastructures, for markets and the most modern technologies, are also important for the security of Bulgaria. The country's participation in these processes is in the interest of increasing the guarantees for our national security.

In adverse weather conditions, individual harmful substances can cause environmental pollution of a transboundary nature.

Violation of safety standards during operation at Kozloduy NPP will lead to the destruction of protective barriers and an accident may occur, accompanied by the release of radioactive products into the environment. This will create a complex radiation situation in which part of the population will receive a dose of radiation above the allowable. In case of unfavorable meteorological conditions and in case the processes of discharging radioactive products from an emergency reactor are not controlled, radioactive contamination of the environment is possible in an area with a radius of about 50 km, which will include a number of settlements. Cross-border transfer of radioactive products is also possible.

There are sites and companies in the country working with technological sources of ionizing radiation. In case of accidents and incidents, local outbreaks may occur in them, which are dangerous for the service personnel. They do not pose an immediate danger to the population, but may be subject to encroachment, criminal trafficking and radiation terrorism.

There are unexploded ordnance, artillery, sea and small arms ammunition on the territory of the country. Some of them have retained their combat capabilities and pose a danger if mishandled. When they enter the technological process of metallurgical enterprises working with scrap, major industrial accidents involving human casualties and significant material losses are possible.

The outbreak of biological outbreaks is possible as a result of insufficient controls on trade and the military export regime with animals and products.

Climatographic characteristics identify earthquakes, snowstorms, snowstorms, hail, dust storms, floods, landslides and fires as potential threats.

The forecast and analysis of potential hazards shows that they can lead to serious difficulties in the normal operation of infrastructure in crisis areas. Vital management systems, the normal functioning of the national economy will be disrupted and the lives and health of the population will be endangered.

The analysis of the forms of manifestation and the peculiarities of the modern risks and challenges shows that no country is able to deal with them on its own. Finding common approaches to counteracting and neutralizing these risks is one of the issues of European security and is taken into account in the development of the common security model in Europe in the 21st century.

2. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR CRISIS AND CONFLICTS

The modern world is characterized by high speed and wide spatial range of changes, with complex interrelationships between ongoing processes. This sets a number of requirements for timeliness, high speed, accuracy and quality of decisions and actions taken. The basis for the fulfillment of these requirements can be an early warning system with the new information technologies introduced in it.

Therefore, an early warning system will be able to extract, analyze and systematize information and knowledge that will be provided for rational decision-making by all managers at the beginning of the crisis.

This will inevitably lead to much more effective use of political, diplomatic means, on the one hand, and deterrents and force, on the other.

The essence of the early warning system lies in the timely detection of the earliest signs of crisis and informing the state and military-political leadership of the country in order to decide on its prevention, effective opposition and minimize its consequences.

It follows that the early warning system is becoming an indispensable organic component of the concept of national security and a real basis for conflict prevention in the purely military sphere, as well as in the economic, political, scientific and technical, etc. In a broader sense, the early warning system includes several chain complexes:

• monitoring of the respective processes;

• building a system of parameters and criteria for taking into account the impact of certain processes on the emergence and development of crisis situations;

• building a system of preventive actions that can prevent the intensification of a crisis process;

• creating a reliable and efficient mechanism for the protection of the modern state, using both political and diplomatic and military means.

Timely correctly understood and accurately assessed danger is an impulse to activate part or the whole system of measures, forces and means for managing crisis situations and crises.

In principle, the idea of ​​the early warning system is based on the creation of a system for monitoring, control, analysis and forecasting, which monitors the occurrence of threats, timely transmits incoming information in processed form and taking measures to prevent potential conflicts . The construction of the system is based on data collection and evaluation and analysis. The information obtained in this way becomes systematic information that warns decision-makers of potential conflict or impending adversarial operation. It is important that the results of the early warning system reach the country's state and military leadership in a timely manner, and at a lower level to all leaders and commanders with responsibilities for crisis management and defense. Another characteristic feature is that in addition to warning, the system should also offer ways to overcome the crisis or conflict.

Each country deploys appropriate technical and organizational structures to gather intelligence. One of the elements of these structures is the national early warning system. Without such a system in modern conditions, when the processes are developing extremely fast, it is impossible to make adequate decisions corresponding to the current situation. The establishment of a national early warning system can be considered in different aspects (political, economic, military, etc.), but they are interrelated and complementary.

The structurally functional early warning system should include:

- national coordinating body for distribution of incoming information to the main users;

- national operational center for collection and processing of incoming information from various sources, distribution and delivery to consumers;

- bodies and means for obtaining information;

- communication and information system for transmission of information in a secure form such as sound, picture, fax and database;

- material and technical and logistical support.

From a purely military point of view, the early warning system can perform tasks in the interest of the strategic operation both in peacetime and in crises and military conflicts of varying intensity. The information in the interest of the missile defense and air defense of the country is extremely important.

The main criteria for building an analytical system for early warning are:

- development of a database with descriptions and analyzes of the processes to be monitored. The stored data should provide information about the genesis and causes of a crisis situation, as well as timely inform the management about the daily processes in the countries of interest. In this case, one should not only be interested in the origin of the crisis or conflict, but constantly monitor the course of events in the specific country and region.

- preliminary development of models of behavior for the different types of crisis situations, which should be constantly updated and supplemented;

- development of specially developed computer programs that allow working with databases, as well as to facilitate the preliminary analysis of data and their rapid reduction to users in an appropriate form.

The early warning system plays a key role in ensuring crisis management. It is one of the important tools in the implementation of the concept of crisis management for conducting intelligence on a strategic scale.

Intelligence information is collected and processed for the purpose of timely detection and warning of risks and threats to crisis situations, analysis in the interests of political and military leadership, provision of operational data in crises when necessary to maintain an overview of events and to the favorable opportunities for defending national interests and, last but not least, for maintaining the information superiority in the international aspect are assessed.

The role of the system is to reduce uncertainty and risk in the democratic process, foreign and domestic policy and its implementation. The aim is to timely detect the beginning of immediate preparations for provoking a political crisis or military conflict.

To achieve this goal, the system must ensure the implementation of the following main tasks:

• identifying the likely adversary, his coalition allies and intentions to take hostile action against the country;

• establishing the early stages of the emerging military-political crisis and preparing the enemy for armed conflicts of varying intensity;

• defining the country's activities and actions domestically and internationally, the implementation of which would lead to the disintegration of the enemy coalition, loss of international and allied support and to resolving the crisis in the phases of its development peacefully;

• detecting and monitoring the movement of the enemy's strike forces and means, the removal of troops from the permanent areas of deployment and their concentration in the source areas;

• providing the Supreme Command with constant information on the possible plan of the enemy, the forces and means used, the areas of concentration and exit areas, the preparation for the use of high-precision and long-range weapons, the preparation and transfer of terrorist and sabotage groups on the territory of the country .n .;

It is obvious that the place of the early warning system is key in ensuring the national security of the country. Obtaining reliable preliminary information about upcoming political crises, military conflicts, dangerous situation and other external and internal processes allows the state leadership to take preventive measures to prevent them, resolve them in the most favorable way and minimize their negative impact on the overall socio-political life and aircraft of the country. Timely provision of the necessary information creates objective preconditions for reducing the threats to our national security and vital interests. These crises and dangerous situations could be defined as specific in time and space, a manifestation of unity and contradiction between a need, attitude and social experience of the subject, on the one hand, and the requirements of specific conditions in the environment, on the other.

Alert is a management process that informs decision makers of a hazard. The principles on which the system is built are related to the requirements for efficient operation in all conditions, namely:

• the system is built and operated in peacetime;

• centralized management;

• prior and timely provision of information;

• objectivity and sustainability;

• purposefulness;

• functionality and efficiency;

• reliability;

• multivariate;

• secrecy and security.

The construction of the system since peacetime is an important condition for the preparation of the country for defense and is directly related to the preparation and planning in the Armed Forces. The normal operation of the system in peacetime allows the state and military leadership to make adequate decisions on the conduct of foreign and domestic policy, construction and development of aircraft in the long run, supply and production of weapons and military equipment, etc. n.

Centralized management allows the operational use of system capabilities and focus efforts in the most important direction.

Prior and timely information is important to give enough time to decision makers to prepare and conduct events and actions appropriate to the situation. The information obtained should be provided to consumers in a timely manner. If this is not done, it loses its relevance and significance. The untimely information received risks serious damage to national interests, as it leads to delays in decision-making by the government and the Armed Forces and the taking of appropriate action. The warning system does not consist in informing the state leadership only about credible events and processes, but the more important role is to ensure the security of the country. This means that the warning process should be about vigilance and attention, instead of waiting for something to happen completely, which we are absolutely sure of. The burden is placed mainly on the predictive nature of an event, and not to be informed after the event is in progress or has already occurred. The main thing is to answer the question "what and when" will happen, and then to further specify what will be the impact of this event and what is the probability that it will happen. All potential events affecting national security and defense interests should be classified with "high", "moderate" and "low" impacts, likely to occur with "high", "medium" and "low". Finally, it should be borne in mind that once the data contained in the system matrix, they are not static, but are subject to continuous refinement and updating. As an example, a possible nuclear war will have a major impact, but it is very unlikely that this event will happen in the near future.

The following requirements apply to the early warning system:

- be open and ensure the introduction of intelligence from all types of intelligence;

- be flexible and ensure its use in both peacetime and wartime;

- to allow intelligence efforts to increase with the aggravation of the military-political situation and the conduct of large-scale exercises in the region by the armed forces of the potential adversary.

In order to fulfill its purpose, the early warning system should be organized in such a way as to enable the necessary information to be obtained, processed and analyzed as quickly as possible and to be provided to users in real time.

The main elements of the system can be considered:

• the forces and means for obtaining advanced information;

o technical means of information;

o information processing centers;

o information processing bodies;

o management architecture.

Depending on the location, the Early Warning System may include the following components:

• terrestrial;

• air;

• sea;

• space.

The technical and organizational architecture of the early warning system depends mainly on the tasks set before it and on the technological and resource capabilities of the state.

The optimal solution for such a system is the inclusion of four main components: terrestrial, air, sea and space, which allows more efficient performance of basic tasks and meets its purpose.

The establishment of an early warning system will create preconditions for a much more effective use of the available military and economic potential to achieve the set goals and for the overall implementation of the mission.

In the near future, the completion of the early warning system will be extremely difficult due to resource constraints. However, individual elements can be successfully used to solve the tasks. It is necessary to reach an agreement at the national level on the establishment and functioning of the National Situation Center and its normative regulation. Next, we can proceed to the purchase of aircraft suitable for DRLO (which our neighboring countries already have) and through organizations-distributors to systematically obtain information on request or by building a station for receiving images from artificial satellites on earth for remote drilling.

This is required not only by the fact that the Republic of Bulgaria is establishing itself as a major infrastructure hub in the Balkans, including transport corridors, routes for oil, gas and electricity, optical and other connections, but also due to the need to provide information that will is a major prerequisite for strengthening the preventive factor in crisis management. The decision-making process goes through all levels of the hierarchy - strategic, operational and tactical. The availability of sufficient volume and quality of information for each of these levels will ensure the normal course of the process. Obtaining real-time imagery from the area of ​​action will ensure information superiority and decision-making for anticipatory action. In this way, favorable conditions for crisis and conflict management are created.